Analytical model of foreshock ion interaction with a discontinuity: A statistical study

When a solar wind discontinuity interacts with foreshock ions, foreshock transients such as hot flow anomalies and foreshock bubbles can form. These create significant dynamic pressure perturbations disturbing the bow shock, magnetopause, and magnetosphere-ionosphere system. However, presently these phenomena are not predictable. In the accompanying paper, we derived analytical equations of foreshock ion partial gyration around a discontinuity and the resultant current density. In this study, we utilize the derived current density strength to model the energy conversion from the foreshock ions, which drives the outward motion or expansion of the solar wind plasma away from the discontinuity. We show that the model expansion speeds match those from local hybrid simulations for varying foreshock ion parameters. Using MMS, we conduct a statistical study showing that the model expansion speeds are moderately correlated with the magnetic field strength variations and the dynamic pressure decreases around discontinuities with correlation coefficients larger than 0.5. We use conjunctions between ARTEMIS and MMS to show that the model expansion speeds are typically large for those already-formed foreshock transients. Our results show that our model can be reasonably successful in predicting significant dynamic pressure disturbances caused by foreshock ion-discontinuity interactions. We discuss ways to improve the model in the future.