NOAA-17 Break-up Engineering Investigation

The NOAA-17 weather satellite operated in polar orbit near 800 km from 2002 until it was decommissioned in April 2013. The spacecraft broke up almost eight years later in March 2021 producing about 100 trackable objects. This follows the breakups of similar spacecraft NOAA-16, DMSP F11, and DMSP F13 which also produced between 80 and 500 trackable objects. An investigation was made into the cause of the breakup and recommend how to better operate or decommission spacecraft in the future. The NOAA-17 breakup was found to be a single, localized debris event; there is likely no catastrophic damage to the whole spacecraft. NOAA-17 debris is very much in family with NOAA-16 debris, and DMSP F11 and F13 are very much in family with each other and share similarities with NOAA-16 and 17; it is likely all four share the same breakup cause. DMSP F13 breakup occurred simultaneous with a known battery overcharge and therefore battery rupture is most likely intermediate cause of all four of the breakups. This is a low confidence assessment, however, since other debris sources cannot be definitively ruled out. No root cause was found as the NOAA-17 batteries were all confirmed to have been disconnected from the charge path as intended. Possible conditions for reconnection are all unlikely including short circuits and ground commanding. All 25 related spacecraft pose a risk of similar breakups for decades to come and are a threat to the critical 800-850 km polar orbit regime; even appropriately decommissioned spacecraft appear to be at risk. Recommendations include an update to the decommissioning procedure and consideration of further investigations and active debris removal, consistent with national policy.