Sea-Level Rise Projections for Maryland 2023

This report provides updated projections of sea-level rise in the State of Maryland, as required at least every five years by the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015.

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produced a database of probabilistic projections of relative sea-level rise for tide-gauge locations around the world that reflect differences caused by thermal expansion, glacier and polar ice sheet melting, winds and currents, and vertical land motion. These are available online for seven locations in Maryland and the District of Columbia. Considered together with extrapolations of tide gauge and satellite observations, these projections indicate that sea level rise will likely be between 0.3 m (1 ft) and 0.5 m (1.6 ft) by 2050 (from a 2005 starting point). Beyond the middle of the century, the pathway of greenhouse gas emissions increasingly matters. Under the Current Commitments scenario, the best estimate of sea-level rise in 2100 is 0.8 m (2.7 ft) and sea level will likely rise between 0.6 m (2.0 ft) and 1.1 m (3.5 ft), barring unexpected processes driving rapid ice-sheet melt. Even with exceptionally rapid ice loss, it is very unlikely that it would exceed 1.5 m (4.9 ft).