Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight

The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.