Influence of Atmospheric Variability on Predicted Sonic Boom Metrics

As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X-59 aircraft over selected communities to survey community responses to low sonic booms. Previously, we developed a Kalman filter method to estimate the loudness metrics experienced by each survey participant during each flight. The Kalman filter fuses acoustic measurements with predictions from PCBoom, a sonic boom propagation model. PCBoom requires vertical profiles of the temperature, humidity, and wind to propagate sonic booms through the atmosphere and predict the loudness metrics at the ground. Prior to each X-59 flight, NASA will launch weather balloons to measure the vertical atmospheric profile. However, the atmosphere changes continually with geographic location and time. The purpose of this work is to determine where and when to launch these weather balloons to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted loudness metrics caused by atmospheric variability. We analyzed the effect of atmospheric variability on the predicted Perceived Level in three communities in different climate zones in the United States. To achieve acceptable uncertainty in the Perceived Level, weather balloons should be launched from at least two different sites within the survey area within one hour of each X-59 flight.