Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption phase on January 15, 2022, that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere and into the stratosphere. The stratospheric volcanic plume included aerosol precursor gases such as SO2 and H2S as well as anomalously high water vapor concentrations due to the submarine oceanic origin. With these atmospheric constituents, the sulfuric gases and water vapor formed sulfate (SO4) particles via gas-to-particle reactions and these aerosols likely increased in size due to hygroscopic growth within anomalously humid regions. Strong easterlies and gravity waves propagated the volcanic impacts throughout the stratosphere. Orbital and suborbital passive sensor retrievals detected changes in the aerosol and trace gas characteristics within the atmospheric column for cloud-free regions over the southern hemisphere. While the CALIPSO lidar can detect aerosol layers in the stratosphere, passive sensors such as MODIS retrieved the total column aerosol abundance and characteristics. Previous studies used manual tracking methods to determine volcanic plume positions and compared them to ground observations. In this study, we examine the machine learning (ML) approaches including segmentation, object detection, and object tracking to identify and track aerosol and trace gas plumes using orbital and suborbital sensor data. This ML implementation strives to provide a more systematic approach to separate total column effects from those of the stratosphere. Similar ML tracking may be useful for stratospheric impact events observed historically by CALIPSO and in the future with EarthCare and the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) lidar-capable missions.