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Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional AirportsUncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.
Document ID
20240007668
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Vishwanath Bulusu
(Universities Space Research Association Columbia, United States)
Husni Refaat Idris
(Ames Research Center Mountain View, United States)
Aastha Acharya
(Metis Technology Solutions, Inc. Albuquerque, NM)
Date Acquired
June 14, 2024
Subject Category
Air Transportation and Safety
Meeting Information
Meeting: AIAA Aviation Forum
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Country: US
Start Date: July 29, 2024
End Date: August 2, 2024
Sponsors: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Funding Number(s)
PROJECT: 629660
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNA16BD14C
CONTRACT_GRANT: 80ARC018D0008
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Technical Review
NASA Technical Management
Keywords
VFR
IFR
uncrewed aircraft
uncertainty
prediction
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