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On the Use of SMAP Soil Moisture for Forecasting NDVI Over CONUS Cropland Regions Vegetation health forecasting (NDVI as a proxy) informs decision-makers about the end of season crop yield productivity but is not well-documented. This study tests improvements in vegetation health forecasting by developing a data-driven Dynamic Agricultural Productivity Indicator (DAPI), which simultaneously incorporates satellite-based root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and satellite-based NDVI data. RZSM is estimated via data assimilation of satellite based SMAP SM dataset. We employ the proposed DAPI forecast across four cropland types in CONUS, including corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Results demonstrate superior performance of the DAPI forecasts compared to climatology-based NDVI forecasts, with the largest improvements in water-limited regions. DAPI shows particularly good performance during hydrologic disturbances such as floods and droughts. To this end, the DAPI approach is useful in estimating future vegetation health for identifying potential food-insecure areas, predicting crop price changes, and projecting expected commodities market trends.
Document ID
20240012812
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Accepted Manuscript (Version with final changes)
Authors
Manh Le
(Science Applications International Corporation (United States) McLean, Virginia, United States)
John D Bolten
(Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, United States)
Kristen M Whitney
(University of Maryland College Park, MD)
David M Johnson ORCID
(United States Department of Agriculture Washington, United States)
Rick Mueller
(United States Department of Agriculture Washington, United States)
Iliana E Mladenova
(United States Department of Agriculture Washington, United States)
Date Acquired
October 7, 2024
Publication Date
October 15, 2024
Publication Information
Publication: Geographical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 51
Issue: 20
Issue Publication Date: October 28, 2024
ISSN: 0094-8276
e-ISSN: 1944-8007
Subject Category
Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 389018.02.10.04.20
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Portions of document may include copyright protected material.
Technical Review
External Peer Committee
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