Glacier & Denali Space Weather: Enhancing Aurora Watch Planning at Glacier and Denali National Parks

The aurora borealis, more commonly known as the northern lights, are vibrant natural lights that are found
near the Earth’s poles. These lights attract numerous visitors every year to national parks hoping to enjoy this
magnificent scenery. National parks rely upon Kp forecasting prediction models as well as the OVATION
Prime model to understand where and when the aurora will occur. The accuracy of the prediction models
allows the National Park Service to effectively allocate resources where high traffic is expected so that they
can provide better viewing opportunities to the public. To verify these models, we used Earth observations
such as Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band on the Suomi National PolarOrbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite to provide images of the aurora. This imager with the combination of
ground-based imagery validates current prediction models with confirmation of when and where the aurora
occurs. Partnered with Glacier National Park and the Natural Sounds and Night Skies Division from Denali
National Park we explored the capability of using another prediction model, a polar disturbance index called
the AE index. Using R-squared linear regression tests and Cohens Kappa along with the analysis of ground
observations provided through AuroraSaurus, we found the Kp and AE indexes to be reliable indicators to
observe the aurora. However, while the aurora can be seen using the VIIRS Day Night Band post event, it is
not a feasible tool for aurora prediction.