Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.