Collision Risk Modeling with Route Turns in Support of Urban Air Mobility Safe Separation

A wide variety of drones and advanced air mobility (AAM) aircraft manufacturers are planning near term operations within domestic airspace, possibly adjacent to traditional air traffic. One aspect of integrating new and existing traffic is to determine the safe separation of aircraft based on, among other parameters, communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities. Developing a collision risk model (CRM) appropriate to the applicable airspace and aircraft is a key factor in developing a safe separation. Leveraging previous work, a CRM has been adapted to analyze safe separation for a subcategory of AAM aircraft: electrical vertical takeoff and landing(eVTOL). In order to appropriately adapt the model for eVTOLs, it is important to incorporate applicable performance requirements and leverage available operational data. While data on actual eVTOL performance is sparse, several operational trials have been conducted on operationally similar aircraft which can be used to estimate their ability to adhere to a planned route of flight. While previous CRMs have largely considered straight flight segments to be representative of the entire trajectory, the trial data analysis suggests that assuming straight trajectories may not be a sufficient approach, especially with the smaller separation distances and curved paths envisioned for eVTOL operations. This CRM provides an initial examination of including turns within the modeling which would aid in presenting a more comprehensive picture of route separation.