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Comparison of CNES, ESA, JAXA, and NASA Reentry Analysis Tools – Phase I: Model Descriptions and Survivability of Individual ComponentsReentry analysis is essential to understanding the consequences of the post-mission disposal of a spacecraft via atmospheric reentry. Since disposal is a key factor in spacecraft development, CNES, ESA, JAXA, and NASA have developed tools to assess the survivability of objects during reentry. Criteria such as debris casualty area and impact kinetic energy are particularly important to understanding the risks posed to people on Earth. Therefore, space agencies have undertaken a series of comparison studies of their respective reentry codes for verification and improvements in accuracy.

CNES’s PAMPERO and DEBRISK, ESA’s Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup (SCARAB) and Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis (DRAMA), NASA’s Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT), and JAXA’s ORSAT-J reentry analysis tools serve as standard codes for reentry survivability assessment of satellites. These programs predict whether an object will demise during reentry and compute the debris casualty area of objects determined to survive, establishing the reentry risk posed to the Earth's population by surviving debris.

Two series of test cases have been studied for comparison, the first of which uses generic parts, defined to use simple shapes and various materials for a better comparison of the predictions of these codes. This study is an improvement on the others in this series because of increased consistency in modeling techniques and variables. The overall comparison demonstrated that the six codes arrive at similar results. Either most objects modeled resulted in close agreement between the six codes, or if the difference was significant, the variance could be explained as a case of semantics in the model definitions.

This paper presents the main results of PAMPERO, DEBRISK, SCARAB, DRAMA, ORSAT, and ORSAT J for the simple shape case and discusses the sources of any discovered differences. Discussion of the results of previous comparisons is made for a summary of differences between the codes and lessons learned from this series of tests.
Document ID
20250002905
Acquisition Source
Johnson Space Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Chris Ostrom
(Johnson Space Center Houston, United States)
Julien Annaloro
(Centre National d'Études Spatiales Paris, France)
Kenichi Sato
(Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Tokyo, Japan)
Tobias Lips
(Universitätsmedizin Göttingen Göttingen, Germany)
Benton Greene
(Amentum Chantilly, Virginia, United States)
Eddy Constant
(RTECH)
Tsutomu Matsumoto
(Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Tokyo, Japan)
Silvia Sanvido
(European Space Operations Centre Darmstadt, Germany)
Phillipe Meyers
(European Space Operations Centre Darmstadt, Germany)
Keita Sakemi
(Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Tokyo, Japan)
Martin Spel
(RTECH)
Date Acquired
March 21, 2025
Subject Category
Space Transportation and Safety
Meeting Information
Meeting: 9th European Conference on Space Debris
Location: Darmstadt
Country: DE
Start Date: April 1, 2025
End Date: April 4, 2025
Sponsors: European Space Agency
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 817091.40.81.72
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Portions of document may include copyright protected material.
Technical Review
NASA Peer Committee
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