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Overall Results of the SMPAG Work Package on Mission Scenarios in Response to the 2025 Planetary Defense Conference Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Threat ScenarioThe members of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group have performed an asteroid impact simulation exercise over a medium size asteroid with impact chances on 24 April 2041, in preparation for the 2025 Planetary Defense Conference. The exercise articulated on two different simulation periods lasting respectively two months and a half and four months. In the first period, Epoch 1, the asteroid impact probability grew from 1.6% to 10% and was played in real time. A preliminary assessment of the required actions that would need to be implemented and a set of recommendations were provided at a plenary SMPAG session held on 10 October 2024. Epoch 2 was simulated after the fast flyby of a reconnaissance mission by the asteroid in April 2028 that allowed refining the asteroid size, and impact location. An assessment of the decisions that were required and the feasible mission options was performed in order to facilitate a recommendation making by the SMPAG plenary. Mission options included kinetic impactors, ion-beam deflection and nuclear explosive devices.
Document ID
20250004463
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Juan L Cano
(European Space Agency Paris, France)
Brent W Barbee
(Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, United States)
Michael Khan
(European Space Agency Paris, France)
Camila Colombo
(Politecnico di Milano Milan, Italy)
Massimiliano Vasile
(University of Strathclyde Glasgow, United Kingdom)
Richard Moissl
(European Space Agency Paris, France)
Detlef Koschny
(Technical University of Munich Munich, Germany)
Date Acquired
May 2, 2025
Subject Category
Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
Report/Patent Number
IAA-PDC-25-01-130
Meeting Information
Meeting: 9th IAA Planetary Defense Conference
Location: Cape Town
Country: ZA
Start Date: May 5, 2025
End Date: May 9, 2025
Sponsors: International Academy of Astronautics (IAA)
Funding Number(s)
WBS: 582622.02.01.04.66
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Portions of document may include copyright protected material.
Technical Review
Single Expert
Keywords
Planetary Defense
Asteroid Deflection
Mission Analysis
Trajectory Design
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