Updated Background Incidence, Mortality, and Survival Rates for the NASA Cancer Risk Model: 2018, 2019, 2021 Combined Data

The NASA space cancer risk model requires cancer incidence and mortality rates, along with overall survival data, for male and female U.S. average and never-smoker populations. These data are obtained from U.S. national cancer and health databases and are regularly updated to reflect the current health status relevant to the astronaut population. This report outlines the methods used to acquire and analyze the most recent U.S. background population data and compares the results to previous background data used in the risk model. Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from national cancer databases by combining data from 2018, 2019, and 2021. The 2020 data were excluded due to Covid complications. The survival data were obtained from the 2019 National Vital Statistics Reports U.S. life tables for males and females. Data were interpolated to single ages using cubic spline interpolation with B-spline smoothing and extrapolated beyond available data where needed. Never-smoker rates for smoking prevalence data for former, current, and never smokers from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System web analysis tool. Risk calculations were performed using the updated background data for galactic cosmic ray exposure during a nominal mission duration of 365 days, at ages 35 and 55 for both males and females and compared to risk calculations using previous background data.