Covariance Prediction Validation and Perturbation Recovery for a Crewed Station in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

The Gateway mission will place a crew-tended station in orbit near the Moon to support surface and heliocentric operations. The uncertainty of the Gateway state is captured in its covariance, which is used to calculate collision risk with visiting vehicles (VV). The predicted covariance is validated against Monte Carlo predictions of state dispersions to validate collision risk calculations. Additionally, the recovery of Gateway state and covariance following a docking/undocking event as a function of post-event tracking and post-tracking prediction are calculated. This analysis is to determine the time and tracking data required to recover from a docking perturbation.