Powering Sustainable Airports in the Year 2075

This exploratory study envisions zero-carbon, sustainable hub-scale airports 50 years into the future. Our approach developed future scenarios that were framed by hypothetical levels and impacts of varied levels of future global temperature change (+1°C, +2°C, +4°C), and integrated energy generation, distribution, fuels, infrastructure, and human factors to envision three possible future states. We used backcasting methodologies by working backward from 2075 scenarios to identify the critical developments and decision points that could lead to each outcome combined with forecasting methodologies for the next ~25 years. Despite aviation's contribution to global carbon emissions, existing roadmaps to zero-carbon aviation are not presently implemented. This study also combines forecasting with backcasting methods to chart pathways to these envisioned airports, considering various Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTEL) factors. Key aspects of a future state, such as green hydrogen, multiple approaches to renewable energy, significant infrastructure changes, substantial lifecycle carbon dioxide (CO2) reductions, and others, are highlighted as essential elements of a multi-fuel approach for sustainable aviation. Based on the core understanding of the available power alternatives, the three scenarios examine future PESTEL pathways. Specifically, the three scenarios represent distinctly different visions of airport operations in 2075, each shaped by varying assumptions about technological progress, climate impacts, and societal adaptation. While all three scenarios acknowledge the fundamental role of global temperature change, they diverge significantly on its impact and in how humanity responds to this challenge.

It should be noted that these scenarios are meant to examine differing extents of change to the present status quo with increasingly severe consequences. The ideal scenarios of abundant power depict future airports as multi-modal transportation hubs integrating advanced technologies like fusion energy, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, extended reality (XR) and visual computing methods applied to enhancing efficiency, security, sustainability, and passenger experience. Anticipated growth in traffic and energy demands necessitates innovative, resilient, and adaptable infrastructures. Other scenarios depict futures of climate adaptation or implemention constrained discipline in response to global changes. Key recommendations include prioritizing investments in hydrogen infrastructure, establishing a broader societal approach such as regulatory frameworks and promoting public education, examining alternate power technologies and their impact on aviation, and implementing adaptable pilot projects across an array of technologies and methods. By leveraging these insights and retaining strong communication lines from strategy to implementation, stakeholders can achieve sustainable, zero-carbon aviation, ensuring continued global connectivity and economic vitality. The overall goal of this manuscript is to inform and enable short- and long-term strategies that influence the coevolution of facilities, operations, and technology with Earth’s changing environment.