Introducing a Grand Challenge for Lightning Modeling

The atmospheric electricity discipline is overflowing with lightning observations across the electromagnetic spectrum – representing physical and chemical processes that span many orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales – but is lacking in integrated modeling capabilities to interpret these measurements. This gap limits our ability to synthesize knowledge from different types of lightning measurements and hinders our understanding of lightning in the broader context of thunderstorms, weather, and climate. To overcome this challenge, a framework for a holistic physical model of lightning has been developed to outline the current strengths and weaknesses in modeling capabilities and to envision how a modular end-to-end lightning model could be realized. Creation of a complete model to test theoretical predictions about lightning against observations will improve lightning forecasting, climate modeling, and our understanding of lightning-ignited wildfires, among other benefits for national security and the private sector. Achieving the first iteration of an integrated model requires significant investment from community stakeholders alongside careful coordination and copious effort among the lightning community, which we propose can be accomplished in a 5-year plan. This newly developed framework illuminates what was once unclear: that the task at hand is indeed within our scientific reach.