Possible variations in atmospheric methane

A model coupling photochemistry and vertical transport in the troposphere has been used to investigate the magnitude of possible future perturbations to atmospheric CH4. The response of atmospheric CH4 to an increase in the concentration of CO or to a variation in stratospheric O3 is studied. Both of the above mechanisms, which could be caused by man's activities, arise because a change in the concentration of tropospheric OH will lead to a change in the CH4 abundance. The calculations imply that a perturbation of about 30-40% in atmospheric CH4 could occur if stratospheric O3 were perturbed by 10% or if man-made CO continued to increase. The possible consequences of a CH4 perturbation may entail a perturbation in stratospheric photochemistry or in the thermal balance of the atmosphere.