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Using dynamo theory to predict the sunspot number during solar cycle 21On physical grounds it is suggested that the polar field strength of the sun near a solar minimum is closely related to the solar activity of the following cycle. Four methods of estimating the polar magnetic field strength of the sun near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of the yearly mean sunspot number of cycle 21 at solar maximum of 140 + or - 20. This estimate may be considered a first-order attempt to predict the cycle activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.
Document ID
19780053157
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Schatten, K. H. (Stanford Univ. CA, United States)
Scherrer, P. H. (Stanford Univ. CA, United States)
Svalgaard, L. (Stanford Univ. CA, United States)
Wilcox, J. M. (Stanford University Stanford, Calif., United States)
Date Acquired
August 9, 2013
Publication Date
May 1, 1978
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
Volume: 5
Subject Category
SOLAR PHYSICS
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: N00014-76-C-0207
CONTRACT_GRANT: NGR-05-020-559
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-77-20580
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other