Sources of orbital debris and the projected environment for future spacecraft

The major source of the nearly 5000 objects currently observed orbiting the earth is from rocket explosions. These explosions have almost certainly produced an even larger unobserved population. If the current trend continues, collisions between orbiting fragments and other space objects could be frequent. By the year 2000 satellite fragmentation by hypervelocity collisions could become the major source of earth orbiting objects, resulting in a self propagating debris belt. The flux within this belt could exceed the meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft design.