A methodology for long range prediction of air transportation

The paper describes the methodology for long-time projection of aircraft fuel requirements. A new concept of social and economic factors for future aviation industry which provides an estimate of predicted fuel usage is presented; it includes air traffic forecasts and lead times for producing new engines and aircraft types. An air transportation model is then developed in terms of an abstracted set of variables which represent the entire aircraft industry on a macroscale. This model was evaluated by testing the required output variables from a model based on historical data over the past decades.