A comparison of in-cloud HCl concentrations from the NASA/MSFC MDM to measurements for the space shuttle launch

The Multilevel Diffusion Model (MDM) Version 5 was modified to include features of more recent versions. The MDM was used to predict in-cloud HCl concentrations for the April 12 launch of the space Shuttle (STS-1). The maximum centerline predictions were compared with measurements of maximum gaseous HCl obtained from aircraft passes through two segments of the fragmented shuttle ground cloud. The model over-predicted the maximum values for gaseous HCl in the lower cloud segment and portrayed the same rate of decay with time as the observed values. However, the decay with time of HCl maximum predicted by the MDM was more rapid than the observed decay for the higher cloud segment, causing the model to under-predict concentrations which were measured late in the life of the cloud. The causes of the tendency for the MDM to be conservative in over-estimating the HCl concentrations in the one case while tending to under-predict concentrations in the other case are discussed.