Short-term fluctuations in the eddy heat flux and baroclinic stability of the atmosphere

National Meteorological Center data from midlatitudes for three Januaries is used in calculating time series of the zonal mean meridional eddy heat flux and the zonal mean baroclinic stability, as measured by the difference between the zonal wind shear and the critical value of the shear in two-level models. Time-lagged correlations between the two series reveal a highly significant negative correlation for short time lags, peaking at approximately -0.4 when the stability parameter lags one half day behind the eddy flux. They also reveal that strongly unstable conditions are not followed by significant increases in the eddy flux. These results are seen as indicating that the synoptic variations of the zonal mean eddy flux are not closely related to the degree of baroclinic instability of the zonal mean flow. The autocorrelation of the eddy flux is then compared with those expected for autoregressive processes. A Bayesian information criterion suggests that the behavior is represented best by a damped oscillation, with a damping time of 0.8 day and a period of five days.