A technique for determining solar irradiance deficits

An analytic technique which determines the variation of solar irradiance from long term averages is presented. The technique involves computer-assisted data reduction techniques, and was designed to improve system reliability by determining the amount of storage capability required to supplement a baseline system. Variations in time intervals of up to 60 days can be determined, and 10 years of data collection are reviewed. The technique involves first calculating average monthly irradiance values, then examining the average irradiance deviation over time intervals. The calculation procedure is clarified by determining solar energy level probabilities and the long term solar energy deviation (achieved by repeatedly integrating actual irradiance figures). It is found that a 15% increase in collector area and the addition of energy storage or backup are essential contributions to achieving cost-effectiveness. In addition, one to seven no-sun day storage capacities are required to accommodate weather caused deficits.