Low-level circulations induced by an upper-level jet in a fine mesh numerical model

Attention is given to varying the initial conditions in the Penn State three-dimensional numerical model in the development of the low-level jet over the Ohio Valley during the 10 May 1973 severe weather event. The results of two forecasts are summarized: (1) the control forecast which interpolated the National Meteorological Center's operational analysis to the mesoscale model grid; and (2) modifying the control forecast by inserting artificial soundings and surface observations. Enhancements are made on the basis of subsynoptic scale analyses by Uccellini and surface data. The results indicate that the low-level jet was in part induced by pressure changes associated with deceleration and horizontal divergence of air in the exit region of the upper-level jet. The enhancement of the initial moisture field using surface reports of clouds and precipitation has a substantial effect on precipitation.