The effect of wind variability on Space Shuttle flight

A data base of paired detailed wind profiles is developed for use in evaluating the STS ascent capability. The flight of the Shuttle is simulated through a sequence of measured detailed wind profiles and the wind effects on load and performance are evaluated. Since the wind measurement and simulation time requirements dictate that the launch decision be based on wind measurements taken about 3.5 hr before launch, a data base of paired detailed profiles is obtained in order to account for possible load increases due to wind profile changes during the final 3.5 hr before launch. Results show that the largest wind changes occur in winter at about 12 km altitude. At that time and altitude, it is found that there is a 5 percent risk that the wind component speed change will approximate 10 m/s in 3.5 hr. It is determined that the wind can vary over a period of 3.5 hr by more than 20 percent from the transition season to the winter season while somewhat smaller changes occur between the transition season and the summer season. It is concluded that these results demonstrate the feasibility of the wind change model concept and that this model should be considered for future use in Shuttle prelaunch operations.