Modeling clear-air turbulence with vortices using parameter-identification techniques

A vortex model of winds associated with clear-air turbulence (CAT) is shown to be useful for characterizing actual airline CAT encounters. The model consists of an array of vortices with solid-body cores embedded in a potential flow field. Parameters such as the size and strength of the vortices and their locations are identified using a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm. A manual identification start-up scheme is used to minimize errors in the initial parameter estimates, and the identification algorithm is found to be robust in regard to the remaining errors. The analysis of a CAT encounter involving a commercial airliner demonstrates the success of the model and estimation procedure. The analysis finds vortices with core diameters of 1000 ft and tangential velocities of 87 ft/sec in this encounter.