NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Predictability of time averages. I - Dynamical predictability of monthly means. II - The influence of the boundary forcingsThe physical basis for the dynamic prediction of monthly means in weather parameters is examined in two papers. In the first paper, an attempt is made to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. In the second paper, the physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, and snow influence atmospheric circulation are discussed. On the basis of both studies, the essential requirements for establishing the physical basis for dynamical prediction of monthly means are to show that: (1) fluctuations of monthly means are larger than can be expected due to sampling of day-to-day weather changes; (2) there are low frequency planetary scale components of circulation which remain predictable beyond the limits of synoptic scale predictability; and (3) the influences of the slowly varying boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, snow, sea ice are large enough to produce significant and detectable changes in the monthly mean circulations. Observational and numerical evidence which support these requirements are presented.
Document ID
19840059611
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Other - Collected Works
Authors
Shukla, J.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 12, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1984
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
84A42398
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

Available Downloads

There are no available downloads for this record.
No Preview Available