Space activities - A review and a look ahead

The paper reviews the progress made in manned and unmanned space programs during the last 25 years and names several major accomplishments. The ingredients of success are identified as good engineering, good technology, and good management of a very complex enterprise. An argument is made that the pace of progress will be governed not by technological advances, which can be very rapid, but rather by future institutional arrangements, which are much slower to evolve. It is predicted that the most likely space activities for the next 20 years will be those relating to space commercialization, and several examples are cited. A hope is expressed that policy makers and entrepreneurs will match the spirit of adventure and risk-taking exhibited by engineers in exploring uncharted territory.