On the impact of the FGGE on tropical forecasts

It has become evident from operational experience that a good forecast requires, in general, a good analysis. This is as true in the tropics as it is in the extratropics. One can find many examples of bad data being accepted by the analysis scheme and significantly degrading the subsequent forecast. Equally, a lack of data may result in a forecast completely missing the early development of, for example, a midlatitude cyclone or tropical depression. Also, single level data may be misinterpreted by an analysis scheme. These problems are compounded in the tropics by our relative ignorance of the dynamics, the necessarily crude descriptions of many important physical processes, and fundamental in analysis. The impact of the FGGE on tropical analysis/forecasting is reviewed.