Global distribution and migration of subsurface ice on Mars

An analytical model is developed for the factors which changed the initial distribution and state of H2O, mainly trapped as subsurface ice, on Mars. A uniform initial ice distribution is assumed, and changes in ice layer thickness are calculated at discrete latitudes of Mars. The thermal/diffusive model used for the calculations accounts for variations in the solar luminosity, the planetary obliquity and eccentricity, with obliquity starting 3.5 Gyr ago, and insolation at various latitudes. Attention is given to variations in the albedo due to seasonal CO2 variations, in the regolith temperature, and in atmospheric pressure. Migration of H2O into and out of the regolith is a function of the H2O vapor temperature at the subsurface ice boundary and the annual average H2O at the base of the atmosphere. Projections of the ice thickness over 100 obliquity periods indicate that the intensity of the obliquity effects are latitudinally dependent. H2O atmospheric concentrations are projected to vary up to six orders of magnitude over an obliquity cycle.