NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic changeA search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.
Document ID
19870030169
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Bell, T. L.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 13, 2013
Publication Date
August 15, 1986
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume: 43
ISSN: 0022-4928
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
87A17443
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

Available Downloads

There are no available downloads for this record.
No Preview Available