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short range forecasting of sea breeze generated thunderstorms at the kennedy space center: a real-time experiment using a primitive equation mesoscale numerical modelThe operational efficiency of using guidance from a mesoscale numerical model to improve sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts at and around the Shuttle landing strip was assessed. The Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) model, developed as a sea breeze model, reveals a strong correlation between regions of mesoscale convergence and the triggering of sea breeze convection thunderstorms. The P3DM was modified to generate stability parameters familiar to the operational forecaster. In addition to the mesoscale fields of wind, vertical motion, moisture, temperature, a stability indicator, a combination of model-predicted K and Lifted Indices and the maximum grid cell vertical motion, were proposed and tested. Results of blind tests indicate that a forecaster, provided with guidance derived from model output, could improve local thunderstorm forecasts.
Document ID
19880001942
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Lyons, Walter A.
(R-Scan Corp. Minneapolis, MN., United States)
Schuh, Jerome A.
(R-Scan Corp. Minneapolis, MN., United States)
Moon, Dennis
(R-Scan Corp. Minneapolis, MN., United States)
Pielke, Roger A.
(ASTeR, Inc. Fort Collins, CO., United States)
Cotton, William
(ASTeR, Inc. Fort Collins, CO., United States)
Arritt, Raymond
(ASTeR, Inc. Fort Collins, Colo., United States)
Date Acquired
September 5, 2013
Publication Date
August 1, 1987
Publication Information
Publication: ESA, Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting
Subject Category
METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS10-11142
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS10-11321
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
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