The solar/interplanetary/magnetosphere/ionosphere connection - A strategy for prediction of geomagnetic storms

A physically-based strategy for the prediction of geomagnetic/ionospheric disturbances, the Solar-Terrestrial/Environmental Model (STEM 2000), is proposed, with application to the prediction of periods of spacecraft charging. Synoptic solar observations provide input for MHD models for flare occurrence, propagation of coronal disturbances, and high speed solar wind streams. A three-dimensional interplanetary MHD model determines solar wind parameters including the energy flux and the cross-magnetosphere tail electric field. Observational earth data are used to predict local time, high latitude ionospheric disturbances which have an impact on the ionospheric structure.