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Predictability in the extended rangeThis paper describes the results of extended range predictability experiments using an efficient two-level spherical quasi-geostrophic model. The experiments have an initial rms doubling time of about two days. This growth rate, along with an initial error of about one-half the initial error of present operational models, produces an rms error equal to the climatological rms error and a correlation of 0.5 on about day 12 of the forecast. On the largest scales, this limiting point is reached shortly thereafter. The error continues to grow at a decreasing rate until at about 30 days the forecast skill is extremely small and comparable to the skill of a persistence forecast. Various time averages at various lags are examined for skill in the extended range. Filters that weighted most strongly in the initial forecast days provide increased skill.
Document ID
19880039008
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Roads, John O.
(California, University San Diego, United States)
Date Acquired
August 13, 2013
Publication Date
December 1, 1987
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume: 44
ISSN: 0022-4928
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
88A26235
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NOAA-NA-86AADCP104
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-85-20450
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAG2-36
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-85-05435
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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