Geodetic evidence of the seismic potential at Parkfield, California

The average rates of line-length change and the rates of the shallow fault slip observed near Parkfield, California, were used to estimate the slip rate at depth on the San Andreas fault (SAF), using the Matsu'ura et al. (1986) procedure to model the aseismic deformation as a perturbation to steady block motion across the SAF. Five different models were tested against the data, with one model, featuring a nearly monotonic transition from creeping behavior on the northwest to locked behavior on the southeast, found to fit the data acceptably well. It is shown that stored elastic energy southeast of Parkfield could produce an earthquake of magnitude up to 8.0, that would have displacement and rupture length similar to historic earthquakes of the same size.