Problems in determining the surface density of the Galactic disk

A new method is presented for determining the local surface density of the Galactic disk from distance and velocity measurements of stars toward the Galactic poles. The procedure is fully three-dimensional, approximating the Galactic potential by a potential of Staeckel form and using the analytic third integral to treat the tilt and the change of shape of the velocity ellipsoid consistently. Applying the procedure to artificial data superficially resembling the K dwarf sample of Kuijken and Gilmore (1988, 1989), it is shown that the current best estimates of local disk surface density are uncertain by at least 30 percent. Of this, about 25 percent is due to the size of the velocity sample, about 15 percent comes from uncertainties in the rotation curve and the solar galactocentric distance, and about 10 percent from ignorance of the shape of the velocity distribution above z = 1 kpc, the errors adding in quadrature. Increasing the sample size by a factor of 3 will reduce the error to 20 percent. To achieve 10 percent accuracy, observations will be needed along other lines of sight to constrain the shape of the velocity ellipsoid.