Analytical model for orbital debris environmental managementA differential equation, also referred to as the PIB (particle-in-a-box) model, expressing the time rate of change of the number of objects in orbit, is developed, and its applicability is illustrated. The model can be used as a tool for the assessment of LEO environment stability, and as a starting point for the development of numerical evolutionary models. Within the context of the model, evolutionary scenarios are examined, and found to be sensitive to the growth rate. It is determined that the present environment is slightly unstable to catastrophic growth, and that the number of particles on orbit will continue to increase until approximately 2250-2350 AD, with a maximum of 2,000,000. The model is expandable to the more realistic (complex) case of multiple species in a multiple-tier system.
Document ID
19900045002
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Talent, David L. (Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Co. Houston, TX, United States)