A simple parcel method for prediction of cumulus onset and area-averaged cloud amount over heterogeneous land surfaces

A set of PBL data selected from the Wangara experiment is used to examine the relationship between cumulus amount and the calculated relative humidity of rising parcels. The Wilde et al. (1985) method is compared to two explicit parcel methods. It is shown that predictions using parcel methods, in which surface air is lifted to its equilibrium level while being diluted by a defined amount of mixed layer air, are superior for cloud amount, especially during periods of rapid cloud onset when the mean boundary layer top is swiftly rising through a near-neutral layer. Pending independent verification, it appears that an rms error in instantaneous cloud amount of + or - 10 percent may be achievable.