Perturbations to tropospheric oxidants, 1985-2035. I - Calculations of ozone and OH in chemically coherent regions

A one-dimensional model based on the sensitivity coefficients of Thompson (1990) is used to calculate regional changes in tropospheric O3 and OH due to specified global or regional changes in CH4 and CO emissions over the period 1985-2035. The methods applied are explained, and the results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and characterized in detail. A 10-15-percent increase in global tropospheric O3 and a 10-15-percent decrease in OH are predicted for both (1) global scenarios with continuing increases in CH4 and CO and (2) regional scenarios where emissions are limited in some regions but not in others; significant regional variation in O3 is predicted for (2). If depletion of O3 in the stratosphere and global warming are introduced into (1) or (2), however, they nearly cancel out the tropospheric O3 increases and OH decreases.