Conversion of piston-driven shocks from powerful solar flares to blast waves in the solar wind

Published observational data on 39 combined type-II/type-IV solar radio bursts from the period 1972-1982 are analyzed, with a focus on the potential use of the type-IV burst duration to predict the time of arrival at earth of piston-driven shock waves (extending and modifying the prediction method proposed by Smart and Shea, 1985). The data and analysis results are presented in tables and graphs and characterized in detail. It is found that a typical shock of this type leaves the solar flare at velocity 1560 km/sec and continues for a distance of 0.12 AU, decelerates as it is convected by the solar wind, and has a travel time of about 48.5 h. The mean deviation between predicted and measured arrival times is 1.40 h, with standard deviation 1.25 h.