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Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and predictionThe variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.
Document ID
19910040954
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Mundt, Michael D.
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Maguire, W. Bruce, II
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Chase, Robert R. P.
(Colorado, University Boulder, United States)
Date Acquired
August 14, 2013
Publication Date
February 1, 1991
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 96
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Accession Number
91A25577
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAGW-1191
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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