Variation of seismic slip in the Gulf of California and the possible effect on geodetic measurements of Pacific-North American plate motion

A simple dislocation model is used to evaluate the variation of seismic slip in the Gulf of California and the possible effect on geodetic measurements of Pacific-North American plate motion by means of an estimation of the surface displacements due to typical transform events in the gulf. The results of this numerical calculation suggest that if a large transform event (about 1.5 x 10 exp 26 dyne cm) were to occur within 100 to 200 km of a geodetic baseline, the relative distance measurements could be affected by up to 15 mm. This is marginally at the error level of a few millimeters plus 2 parts in 10 exp 8 of baseline length for GOMEX measurements, which thus are sensitive only to the far-field displacement along the plate boundary.