Quasar evolution and the growth of black holes

A 'minimalist' model of AGN evolution is analyzed that links the measured luminosity function to an elementary description of black hole accretion. The observed luminosity function of bright AGN is extrapolated and simple prescriptions for the growth and luminosity of black holes are introduced to infer quasar birth rates, mean fueling rates, and relict black hole distribution functions. It is deduced that the mean accretion rate scales as (M exp -1./5)(t exp -6.7) and that, for the most conservative model used, the number of relict black holes per decade declines only as M exp -0.4 for black hole masses between 3 x 10 exp 7 and 3 x 10 exp 9 solar masses. If all sufficiently massive galaxies pass through a quasar phase with asymptotic black hole mass a monotonic function of the galaxy mass, then it is possible to compare the space density of galaxies with estimated central masses to that of distant quasars.