Geographic variations in the thermal and diffusive stability of ground ice on Mars

Time-dependent models of the thermal and diffusive behavior of the Martian regolith are developed to investigate the stability of ground ice within the top several meters of the regolith. The geographic distribution of thermal inertia and albedo as well as the latitudinal variation in insolation are included in calculations of surface and subsurface temperatures between +/- 60 deg latitude. Ground ice is found to be stable where the annual mean surface and subsurface temperatures were below the atmospheric frost point. Calculations of temperatures at high and low obliquity suggest that ground ice would be stable globally at high obliquity and would not be stable between +/- 60 deg latitude at low obliquity. The time scales for condensation of ground ice are found to be comparable to that of orbital oscillations, suggesting that the present geographic distribution of ground ice may depend on the orbital history of Mars.