Horizon Mission Methodology - A tool for the study of technology innovation and new paradigms

The Horizon Mission (HM) methodology was developed to provide a means of identifying and evaluating highly innovative, breakthrough technology concepts (BTCs) and for assessing their potential impact on advanced space missions. The methodology is based on identifying new capabilities needed by hypothetical 'horizon' space missions having performance requirements that cannot be met even by extrapolating known space technologies. Normal human evaluation of new ideas such as BTCs appears to be governed (and limited) by 'inner models of reality' defined as paradigms. Thus, new ideas are evaluated by old models. This paper describes the use of the HM Methodology to define possible future paradigms that would provide alternatives to evaluation by current paradigms. The approach is to represent a future paradigm by a set of new BTC-based capabilities - called a paradigm abstract. The paper describes methods of constructing and using the abstracts for evaluating BTCs for space applications and for exploring the concept of paradigms and paradigm shifts as a representation of technology innovation.