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Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescalesUsing 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.
Document ID
19950053271
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Mann, Michael E.
(Yale University New Haven, CT, United States)
Park, Jeffrey
(Yale University New Haven, CT, United States)
Date Acquired
August 16, 2013
Publication Date
December 20, 1994
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 99
Issue: D12
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
95A84870
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF EAR-92-19367
CONTRACT_GRANT: RP-3267-07
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAG5-2316
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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