Turbulence near thunderstorm tops

For several years, scientists at San Jose State University, NASA-Ames, and the University of Arizona have carried out cooperative research programs to understand the causes and effects of severe turbulence. The primary sources of data for this work are Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) tapes from airliners that have been involved in turbulence incidents. A significant result of the analysis of these data has been the identification and quantification of the turbulence causes. Turbulence signatures include breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, large amplitude mountain lee waves, turbulence in and around thunderstorms, and maneuvering. The requirements that must be met for a turbulence incident to be included in the NASA study are rather straightforward: (1) severe or greater turbulence must have been reported (usually with passenger injuries) and (2) the flight data tapes must be available. Despite these rather general criteria, and the fact that our cases are drawn from a wide geographical area over the U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean, we have found an interesting bias in our sample. Of 12 cases at cruise altitude, four were definitely associated with thunderstorms and two are suspected thunderstorm cases. The others were due to mountain waves, CAT, high level windshear/maneuvering, or to causes not yet determined. Although our sample is small, these numbers have raised several questions, not the least of which are: How pervasive is the problem of aircraft encounters with severe turbulence in or near thunderstorm tops (TNTT)? Given the available visible and radar evidence of thunderstorms, Why do such incidents occur? Can anything be done to allevaite the problem? This paper outlines some very preliminary efforts to answer these questions. In the following sections, physical and statistical characteristics of TNTT are discussed (Section 2), TNTT causes are summarized (Section 3), current recommendations for TNTT avoidance are reviewed (Section 4), and some suggestions to ameliorate the problem are given (Section 5).