Predictions of Substorms and Intensifications Following Northward Turnings of the IMF

Substorms are often observed to occur at the end of intervals of Southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), i.e. following the northward turning. Despite the significant correlation between northward turning and substorms, no direct causal relationship between northward turnings and substorms has been demonstrated. Assuming such a causal relationship, we predict that substorms will occur within a particular interval following the observation of a northward turning in the IMF. We observe 16 northward turnings following steady, southward IMF in data taken by the WIND spacecraft magnetic field instrument (MFI). To ensure that the northward turning was observed at the magnetosphere, we require that the northward turning also be observed by instruments on either one of Geotail or IMP-8 while the separation of the second spacecraft from WIND was more that 10 R(sub E). These two-spacecraft observations also allow us to predict more accurately the arrival time of the northward turning at the Earth. Of the predictions substorms, 10 predictions were clearly successful to within +/- 12 min. Five predictions failed, but the failures reveal clear shortcomings in the criteria for a northward turning that we correct. The failures were caused by an increase in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) simultaneous with the northward turning in 3 cases, and a weak southward IMF preceding the northward turning in 2 cases. The final northward turning arrived in the recovery phase of an ongoing substorm, and resulted in unusual auroral activity. The implication of the predictability of substorms following sharp northward turnings is that the postulated causal relationship between northward turnings and substorm onset exists. The effect of increases in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) to negate the triggering ability of northward turnings suggests that the triggering mechanism involves sharp reductions in the magnetospheric convection electric field.