The Impact of SN1987A with its Circumstellar Ring

Following is final report on the study "The Impact of SN1987A with its Circumstellar Ring", which is now complete. In 1994, it was predicted that the blast wave from SN1987A would strike the circumstellar ring in AD1999+/-3, and that the ring would brighten by several hundreds optically as the shock entered the ring. It was also predicted that the emission lines from the shocked ring would have linewidths of a few hundred km/s. Today, we see a "hot spot" on the ring that first appeared in Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images in 1995 and has doubled in brightness between August 1997 and February 1998. Moreover, spectra from STIS show that the emission lines from the hot spot have widths and blue shifts of order 200 km/s, just as we predicted in 1994. Our guess of 1999+/-3 for the impact time was lucky, because we assumed that the hot gas in the bubble between the supernova and the ring had a low density (approximately 10 cm(exp -3)). But it was pointed out that the ROSAT observations of soft X-rays from SN 1987A implied that the intervening gas had a higher density, (approximately 100 cm(exp -3)), which would delay the impact until ca. 2007. Others developed hydrodynamic models to fit the ROSAT X-ray emission spectrum and came to the same conclusion. But these models were oversimplified in that they assumed that the ring was perfectly round. Now we see clearly that the hot spot is a peninsula that protrudes inward from the ring -- the first spot on the ring to be struck by the blast wave. No doubt there are other protrusions on the ring, which we may expect to light up in the next few years until they finally merge to set the entire ring ablaze, probably within 5 - 10 years. It was also predicted that the X-ray emission must be accompanied by optical and ultraviolet emission from atoms in the supernova debris and in the circumstellar gas that cross the reverse shock and the blast wave, respectively, and that the Lyman-alpha and NV emission lines should be bright enough to see with the STIS.